James Carville was approached by anxious New Yorkers on the Upper East Side of Manhattan seeking insight on the upcoming November election. He had no answers, highlighting the unpredictability of the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Polls are showing a deadlocked race, with a 48%-48% split. In recent elections, polling misses have led to skepticism among analysts, with no consensus on the outcome. The rise of big data has created a perception of certainty in predicting election outcomes, but the Trump era has brought back uncertainty. Most elections in the 21st century have been close, with the Electoral College adding an extra layer of uncertainty by magnifying tiny shifts in individual states. Polls have consistently shown stable uncertainty, with little movement in the electorate. The polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, raising the possibility that they may be doing the same for Harris now. Despite polls showing a tight race, the final result could vary significantly. Carville believes that the outcome may not be as close as current polling indicates, with the potential for one candidate to win several key battleground states. Ultimately, the uncertainty and razor-thin margins in the polls point to a highly competitive election that could go in any direction, leaving anxious voters and analysts alike guessing about the final result.
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