Ukraine has conducted a series of strikes against ammunition depots within Russia since mid-September, with the latest attacks occurring on Wednesday and Thursday. These strikes could potentially impact Russia’s offensive operations in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that if Ukrainian forces have the necessary resources and approval to continue such a strike campaign at scale, it could force the Russian military to reorganize and disperse their support and logistics systems to mitigate the impact of repeated attacks.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces stored Shahed drones at the Krasnodar region facility, which are used to strike Ukrainian settlements and cities. Additionally, Kyiv forces have targeted several other ammunition depots and military sites in Russia in recent weeks. The ISW notes that while individual strikes may not significantly impact Russia’s war effort, continued attacks could prompt a strategic shift in Russian military operations.
In a separate incident, Ukrainian drones targeted the Feodosia fuel depot in Crimea, leading to a massive fire and evacuation of over 1,000 people. The ISW highlights that Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities, coupled with the possibility of using Western systems, could further impact Russian operations in the future.
Overall, the ISW’s analysis suggests that Ukrainian strikes within Russia have the potential to disrupt Russian offensive operations in Ukraine, prompting the need for the Russian military to adapt and counter these attacks effectively.
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