US officials have announced that the US-led coalition fighting ISIL in Iraq will wind down by the end of 2025, but a prolonged military presence remains a possibility. The announcement did not provide clarity on the future of US troops in Iraq, describing it as a “transition” rather than a “withdrawal”.
The plan involves two phases, with the first phase expected to end in September 2025 and the second phase extending through at least 2026. The focus will shift toward an expanded US-Iraqi bilateral security relationship, though officials did not confirm if this would lead to a full withdrawal of US troops.
The US initially invaded Iraq in 2003 in response to the September 11 attacks, with a peak of 170,000 troops deployed by 2007. Most troops were withdrawn by 2011, but forces were redeployed in 2014 to combat ISIL. The Biden administration declared an end to the US “combat mission” in Iraq in 2021, shifting troops to an advisory role.
Discussions about winding down troops began in January and involved high-ranking officials from Iraq and the US-led coalition. The presence of US troops in Iraq has been a contentious issue, opposed by influential segments of the government and facing attacks from Iran-aligned militias.
The future of US military presence in Iraq remains uncertain, with officials refraining from speculating on where they may end up. The decision will likely have significant implications for the security landscape in Iraq and the region as a whole.
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